Wall Street's golden child AAPL missed earnings for the first time in four years yesterday! Profits were 7.05/share which came in below analysts expectations of 7.39/share. The stock is down 4% in early trading after being down as much as 8% in after hours trading yesterday.
Now AAPL is notorious for low balling guidance so analysts are always trying to figure out how much more they have to up their targets from AAPL's guidance. Last quarter AAPL predicted they would make 6.40/share. Analysts had raised their targets all the way up to 7.39 before earnings.
AAPL disappointed on iPhone sales selling 17.1 million iPhones while analysts were expecting 18-20 million. Sales were especially disappointing in September as consumers awaited the new iPhone 4S.
iPad sales were 11.1 million which was disappointing to analysts as well. iTunes had revenue of 1.5 billion in the quarter. The company sold 4.89 million Macs in the quarter. Revenue from the AAPL stores was 3.6 billion. iPhone 4S sales were 4 million in their first three days!
Wall Street was disappointed in the past quarter but I don't think it's anything to get scared about. After all that was LAST quarter's results...what is more important was their guidance which they raised to 9.30/share for this upcoming quarter. To me, the stock was unfairly beaten up. AAPL is not one of those high flying momo stocks with a 50 PE. AAPL is still growing, raised it's guidance and isn't that expensive to boot. This pullback is a good buying opportunity.
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
Stocks up on Bank of America earnings
Bank stocks are up today after Bank of America posted better than expected earnings. Bank of America stock was up almost 7% today in early trading. The big positive surprise was Bank of America's revenue, which was 28.7 billion, increasing even in a tough quarter for most banks.
Profit per share was .56 which was helped by a 9.8 billion gain for selling it's stake in China Construction bank. Bank of America's core business appears to be shrinking however as it's net interest margin dropped to 2.32%. Net interest margin is the difference between what it pays depositors for use of it's cash versus what it charges for loans. Net interest income which is the bread and butter for banks shrank to 10.7 billion from 12.7 billion a year ago. Bank of America stock has fallen more than 50% this year.
In other earnings news, IBM's shares were down 4.5% in the early going after posting in line results. Investor expectations were high for IBM after it rallied to a record high close a few days ago. Analyst's were disappointed with the earnings which showed that IBM may have slower growth in the future. IBM posted revenue of 26.2 billion for the quarter and profits of 3.28 a share. IBM stock has risen more than 20% this year.
The overall markets are higher today as of 8 AM PST after earlier being down almost 1%. After the bell we get AAPL earnings which I will be watching closely.
Profit per share was .56 which was helped by a 9.8 billion gain for selling it's stake in China Construction bank. Bank of America's core business appears to be shrinking however as it's net interest margin dropped to 2.32%. Net interest margin is the difference between what it pays depositors for use of it's cash versus what it charges for loans. Net interest income which is the bread and butter for banks shrank to 10.7 billion from 12.7 billion a year ago. Bank of America stock has fallen more than 50% this year.
In other earnings news, IBM's shares were down 4.5% in the early going after posting in line results. Investor expectations were high for IBM after it rallied to a record high close a few days ago. Analyst's were disappointed with the earnings which showed that IBM may have slower growth in the future. IBM posted revenue of 26.2 billion for the quarter and profits of 3.28 a share. IBM stock has risen more than 20% this year.
The overall markets are higher today as of 8 AM PST after earlier being down almost 1%. After the bell we get AAPL earnings which I will be watching closely.
Monday, October 17, 2011
Down and dirty all day long
We have had one hell of a rally in the US where prices have risen 14.1% on the SNP 500 since bottoming October 4th. We had been rangebound on the SNP 500 for the past two months but it now looks like we are going to break out of the range and head upwards. It has been a truly remarkable rally.
US stock futures are up and Asian and European market's are as well on a continuation of positive momentum from the past two weeks. US Dow stock futures are up 81 points as of 1:15 AM PST.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng index has also had quite a rally. It is now 18,800 after rallying nearly 3000 points in the past week and a half. That is a years worth of gains in less than two weeks!
European bourses are up as well across the board with the FTSE, DAX and CAC all up over 1%. It looks like we will get more rallying tomorrow. I plan on buying some AAPL when I wake up.
US stock futures are up and Asian and European market's are as well on a continuation of positive momentum from the past two weeks. US Dow stock futures are up 81 points as of 1:15 AM PST.
The Hong Kong Hang Seng index has also had quite a rally. It is now 18,800 after rallying nearly 3000 points in the past week and a half. That is a years worth of gains in less than two weeks!
European bourses are up as well across the board with the FTSE, DAX and CAC all up over 1%. It looks like we will get more rallying tomorrow. I plan on buying some AAPL when I wake up.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Google blows away expectations
Google makes most of it's money from search ads and it has 76% of the US market and even more of the rest of the world.
The number of clicks on ads rose 28% from the year ago period and the price they charge per click increased 5%.
Google +, Google's answer to the Facebook threat increased it's user base to 40,000,000 increasing from 10,000,000 in July.
Google is also grabbing a larger share of the smartphone marketplace with over 190,000,000 Android phones active worldwide.
Google's profit for the 3rd quarter was 2.3 billion on sales of 7.51 billion.This equates to profits of about 8.33/share. Google is a cash machine.
Market's are up on this good news continuing the positive momentum of the past 2 weeks. As of 8:00 AM PST the DOW is up almost 1%. The SNP 500 keeps bumping it's head on the 1220 level.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Bank stocks drag averages lower
JP Morgan stock is down almost 6% as of 10:53 AM PST and down about 25% YTD. Bank of America stock is down almost 5% to 6.23. The broader market's were down as well with the DOW down as much as 150 points early in the session but has recovered somewhat to be down only 50 points at the time of this writing. The SNP 500 was down about .5% but the NASDAQ was green because AAPL was higher by about 1%.
After the bell we get Google earnings.
Wednesday, October 12, 2011
Stocks and Breaking Bad
<------mfw I win
Sorry about the late post friends. I woke up late this morning and had to get out of the house really fast and so did not have time to put up a preliminary post as per my usual.
Anyways, before I get to stocks, did you see the Breaking Bad finale?? OMFG, I just got around to watching the last two episodes last night and it was EPICCCCCC. This show is the definition of epic! I don't want to spoil it for anyone who hasn't seen it but it was just a sick ass finale. Breaking Bad has to be one of the greatest shows on television right now and Tio has to be one of the greatest characters. I don't know how they are going to top this past season next year. It will be interesting to watch. What did you guys think of it if you saw it?
Sunday, October 9, 2011
Stocks blast off on European hopes
US stock futures are up this evening as German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to have a plan in place by the November 3rd G20 summit to address the slow motion train wreck that is the European debt crisis. There will include a European bank recapitalization and a plan to deal with the Greece mess.
Stock futures were up over 100 Dow points as of 10:30 PM PST. The euro was also up by more than half a percent.
French and Belgium officials also pledged to backstop the failing bank Dexia. Merkel and the European leaders pledged to do "everything necessary" to stem contagion from the crisis.
This week starts off the third quarter earnings season with Alcoa reporting after the bell Teusday. The earnings reports will go a long way to show the sustainability of the recent rally. Pepsico, JP Morgan, Google and Mattel all report earnings next week.
Stock futures were up over 100 Dow points as of 10:30 PM PST. The euro was also up by more than half a percent.
French and Belgium officials also pledged to backstop the failing bank Dexia. Merkel and the European leaders pledged to do "everything necessary" to stem contagion from the crisis.
This week starts off the third quarter earnings season with Alcoa reporting after the bell Teusday. The earnings reports will go a long way to show the sustainability of the recent rally. Pepsico, JP Morgan, Google and Mattel all report earnings next week.
Friday, October 7, 2011
A Nice Jobs Report
Markets are up in the early going after a better than expected jobs report eased fears of a recession in the US. The government non farms payroll report showed that 103.000 jobs were created in September, a number greater than economists had forecast. Economists were expecting 60.000 jobs created. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1% as more people rejoined the workforce.
In some more good news, payroll data for July and August were revised upward by 99.000. Remember that horrible payroll number from August were we added a big fat 0 jobs? Well, it was wrong. Everybody panicked over that number but it turns out the US economy isn't as bad as the market thinks. The economic data we have been getting recently are consistent with an economy that is slowly growing and not an economy going into a recession.
Stocks have reacted well to the news with the DJIA up 75 points in the early going as of 7:47 AM PST. The other major averages are mixed. European bourses are all higher by more than 1% and the Asian indexes closed green as well with the Hang Seng up almost 10% in the past two days.
In some more good news, payroll data for July and August were revised upward by 99.000. Remember that horrible payroll number from August were we added a big fat 0 jobs? Well, it was wrong. Everybody panicked over that number but it turns out the US economy isn't as bad as the market thinks. The economic data we have been getting recently are consistent with an economy that is slowly growing and not an economy going into a recession.
Stocks have reacted well to the news with the DJIA up 75 points in the early going as of 7:47 AM PST. The other major averages are mixed. European bourses are all higher by more than 1% and the Asian indexes closed green as well with the Hang Seng up almost 10% in the past two days.
Tuesday, October 4, 2011
October is the cruelest month
For stocks it is. Here are some fun market facts for stocks in October
Markets have opened sharply lower today as the European Union has denied a vital aid payment to Greece. The Greeks keep missing their budgeting targets and the European Union has said that they must cut more. It looks like a Greek default is imminent and that is why market's are crashing. Like I said before, trying to get money out the Greek people is like squeezing blood from a turnip! It's time to let Greece default and let the chips fall where they may. This extend and pretend just isn't working anymore.
Market Recap
WOW, WHAT A FREAKING DAY FOR THE MARKET!!!!!! Just insane movements today. In the last hour of trading, we moved up over 350 points!! There was some BIG BIG MONEY in the markets today buying in the last hour of trading. Some say it was the PPT or Plunge Protection Team, but whatever it was, big institutions were putting money to work today in the markets.
The DJIA ended up 153 points today after earlier being down as much as 250 points. The S&P 500 more than 2% and the NASDAQ was up 3%. Oil was down 1% and gold was down 3%! This looks like the bottom for now.
In the early going stocks spiked up and I thought we might have a huge reversal today so I closed my short positions that I opened yesterday for a tiny loss. Good thing I did because had I kept them I would have been stopped out already!! The Dumb Money indicator works!
Unfortunately, I did not go long at the end of the day because my brain is fried right now watching this crazy action and I was too frozen to do anything. I would have loved to buy some AAPL today which tagged it's 200 day moving average in a vicious selloff on the release of the iPhone 4GS. Apple dropped from 384 to 354 during the day and then bounced hugely off the 200 day moving average to finish at 372.
Just an insane day in the markets today. I went ahead and bought some small caps, european large caps and ems today for my long term portfolio. This could be the bottom for awhile. Let's see what happens.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
- October 28-29 1929 The stock market crashed 25% in two days heralding the onset of the great depression
- October 19,1987 The stock market crashed 20% in one day on what became known as Black Monday
- October 6-10, 2008 The stock market dropped 20% in one week as it looked like the entire financial system was going to meltdown.
- October has marked the end of the 1946, 1957, 1960, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1990, 1998 and 2002 bear markets
Markets have opened sharply lower today as the European Union has denied a vital aid payment to Greece. The Greeks keep missing their budgeting targets and the European Union has said that they must cut more. It looks like a Greek default is imminent and that is why market's are crashing. Like I said before, trying to get money out the Greek people is like squeezing blood from a turnip! It's time to let Greece default and let the chips fall where they may. This extend and pretend just isn't working anymore.
Market Recap
WOW, WHAT A FREAKING DAY FOR THE MARKET!!!!!! Just insane movements today. In the last hour of trading, we moved up over 350 points!! There was some BIG BIG MONEY in the markets today buying in the last hour of trading. Some say it was the PPT or Plunge Protection Team, but whatever it was, big institutions were putting money to work today in the markets.
The DJIA ended up 153 points today after earlier being down as much as 250 points. The S&P 500 more than 2% and the NASDAQ was up 3%. Oil was down 1% and gold was down 3%! This looks like the bottom for now.
In the early going stocks spiked up and I thought we might have a huge reversal today so I closed my short positions that I opened yesterday for a tiny loss. Good thing I did because had I kept them I would have been stopped out already!! The Dumb Money indicator works!
Unfortunately, I did not go long at the end of the day because my brain is fried right now watching this crazy action and I was too frozen to do anything. I would have loved to buy some AAPL today which tagged it's 200 day moving average in a vicious selloff on the release of the iPhone 4GS. Apple dropped from 384 to 354 during the day and then bounced hugely off the 200 day moving average to finish at 372.
Just an insane day in the markets today. I went ahead and bought some small caps, european large caps and ems today for my long term portfolio. This could be the bottom for awhile. Let's see what happens.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Markets rally on German vote
Markets were rallying early Thursday morning as the German bundestag approved new powers for the European Financial Stability Fund.
From Reuters...
"The Bundestag (lower house) overwhelmingly approved new powers for the 440-billion-euro EFSF fund to make precautionary loans, help recapitalize banks and buy distressed countries' bonds in the secondary market."
The markets welcomed this news as a sign of greater European solidarity as fears of German non participation in the bailout receded. The Frankfurt DAX which had fallen almost 35% from the highs has been rallying strongly recently as German chancellor Angela Merkel has reiterated that the EU would not let Greece default and would keep the EU together.
Other good news in the markets today was US 2nd quarter GDP was revised upwards to 1.3% from a previous 1% print. This was on the back of better consumer spending and exports than previously thought.
Initial jobless claims also came in better than expected alleviating fears that the United States was sliding back into a recession. Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 391,000 which was much lower than the 420,000 that economists had forecast. Initial jobless claims measures the amount of new people filing for unemployment benefits in the past week.
Markets are strong across the board this morning with the Dow up 200 points as of 7:23 AM PST. The SNP 500 and NASDAQ are also solidly in the green up 1.4% and .67% respectively. European stocks are up as well with the German DAX and Paris CAC up over 1%. Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa was up 1.3% and the Mexican IPC Index was up over 2%.
Market Recap
Well, today had to be a frustrating day if you are a bull or a bear! Markets opened up strongly and then sold off all day going from 250 pts up to 50 pts down on the DJIA only to rally in the final half hour to end up 143 pts higher.
The interesting thing about today's market was the complete obliteration of some of the best performing momentum stocks today. AAPL, BIDU, GMCR, AMZN, FOSL, RL all were clobbered today. BIDU was down over 9% today on no news that I can see. AAPL was down 1.6%. All these had done well this year and with end of the quarter window dressing, I would have thought they would be going up on a good day like today. It seems fund managers may be dumping the stocks they have profits in and scooping up perceived bargains like bank stocks. Bank stocks were up across the board today with BAC and C up over 3% today.
I got stopped out of AAPL today with a 4% loss. It was a poor trade all around and I seem to have lost my mojo with AAPL for now and I will stay away from trading it for awhile. I have almost given up all the gains I had for the year with the last few poor trades. My XLE trade is working well for now (fingers crossed) although it did not look so good earlier in the day. Today's close was quite powerful and I look for a continuation of the strength into tomorrow. We should be able to get some follow through.
From Reuters...
"The Bundestag (lower house) overwhelmingly approved new powers for the 440-billion-euro EFSF fund to make precautionary loans, help recapitalize banks and buy distressed countries' bonds in the secondary market."
The markets welcomed this news as a sign of greater European solidarity as fears of German non participation in the bailout receded. The Frankfurt DAX which had fallen almost 35% from the highs has been rallying strongly recently as German chancellor Angela Merkel has reiterated that the EU would not let Greece default and would keep the EU together.
Other good news in the markets today was US 2nd quarter GDP was revised upwards to 1.3% from a previous 1% print. This was on the back of better consumer spending and exports than previously thought.
Initial jobless claims also came in better than expected alleviating fears that the United States was sliding back into a recession. Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 391,000 which was much lower than the 420,000 that economists had forecast. Initial jobless claims measures the amount of new people filing for unemployment benefits in the past week.
Markets are strong across the board this morning with the Dow up 200 points as of 7:23 AM PST. The SNP 500 and NASDAQ are also solidly in the green up 1.4% and .67% respectively. European stocks are up as well with the German DAX and Paris CAC up over 1%. Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa was up 1.3% and the Mexican IPC Index was up over 2%.
Market Recap
Well, today had to be a frustrating day if you are a bull or a bear! Markets opened up strongly and then sold off all day going from 250 pts up to 50 pts down on the DJIA only to rally in the final half hour to end up 143 pts higher.
The interesting thing about today's market was the complete obliteration of some of the best performing momentum stocks today. AAPL, BIDU, GMCR, AMZN, FOSL, RL all were clobbered today. BIDU was down over 9% today on no news that I can see. AAPL was down 1.6%. All these had done well this year and with end of the quarter window dressing, I would have thought they would be going up on a good day like today. It seems fund managers may be dumping the stocks they have profits in and scooping up perceived bargains like bank stocks. Bank stocks were up across the board today with BAC and C up over 3% today.
I got stopped out of AAPL today with a 4% loss. It was a poor trade all around and I seem to have lost my mojo with AAPL for now and I will stay away from trading it for awhile. I have almost given up all the gains I had for the year with the last few poor trades. My XLE trade is working well for now (fingers crossed) although it did not look so good earlier in the day. Today's close was quite powerful and I look for a continuation of the strength into tomorrow. We should be able to get some follow through.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Do we get some window dressing?
At the end of every quarter on wall street there exists a phenomenon called "window dressing". This is where portfolio managers and traders buy up stocks that have done well in the quarter and sell the ones that have done bad to make their portfolio's look better to their investors. Generally this is a time when stocks rise as money is put to work to make the quarter look better than it really was. If you look at the end of the last quarter in June, you can see a good example of it. Stocks really rose at the end of June.
We are coming to another end of quarter and after last weeks drubbing, markets are looking for any reason to rally. As such, stocks are once again up today nearly 100 points on the DJIA in the early going and the SNP and NASDAQ are up as well. We gave back 150 pts of gain on the DJIA yesterday and today we may get it all back! The headlines will say we are up on "European hopes" but we know better...it's because of window dressing!
After flying yesterday, European stocks have settled down a bit mostly in the red by modest amounts. London was down almost 1%, Frankfurt was up with a marginal gain and Paris was down by .4%. Gold remains near yesterday's closing price and seems to be stabilizing and silver is down a small amount. Oil is down almost 1%. The euro is rallying once again up a third of a percent.
Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa is up over 1% and the Argentina Merval is not open but was up 2% yesterday. Asian shares were mixed with Tokyo up and Hong Kong down.
We are coming to another end of quarter and after last weeks drubbing, markets are looking for any reason to rally. As such, stocks are once again up today nearly 100 points on the DJIA in the early going and the SNP and NASDAQ are up as well. We gave back 150 pts of gain on the DJIA yesterday and today we may get it all back! The headlines will say we are up on "European hopes" but we know better...it's because of window dressing!
After flying yesterday, European stocks have settled down a bit mostly in the red by modest amounts. London was down almost 1%, Frankfurt was up with a marginal gain and Paris was down by .4%. Gold remains near yesterday's closing price and seems to be stabilizing and silver is down a small amount. Oil is down almost 1%. The euro is rallying once again up a third of a percent.
Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa is up over 1% and the Argentina Merval is not open but was up 2% yesterday. Asian shares were mixed with Tokyo up and Hong Kong down.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Gold and silver in liquidation mode
Gold and silver were in total liquidation mode on Monday morning as European and Asian traders are looking to raise cash anywhere they can. Gold continued it's decline from the past 3 days as the dollar strengthened versus major currencies. Gold was down 3.5% while silver was down a whopping 12.4% to 26 and change after earlier dropping as much as 17%!
Yikes!
There is full blown panic in the commodities space as oil and copper were down big as well. Oil was down 2.50 to 77.50 and copper was down 5.5%.
Well it looks to be another roller coaster day on Wall Street after a weekend of talks between central bankers and policymakers from around the world failed to produce any agreement on how to deal with the European debt crisis.
"There was very little official detail on the talks however as speech after speech outlined how worried global policy makers were, without offering any clear signals on what the response will be to the debt crisis," said a CNBC article.
There was talk of a shock and awe trillion dollar upgrade to the European Financial Stability Fund or EFSF but little consensus about implementation of such a plan. Markets have been reacting negatively to all the confusion.
There is full blown panic in the commodities space as oil and copper were down big as well. Oil was down 2.50 to 77.50 and copper was down 5.5%.
Well it looks to be another roller coaster day on Wall Street after a weekend of talks between central bankers and policymakers from around the world failed to produce any agreement on how to deal with the European debt crisis.
"There was very little official detail on the talks however as speech after speech outlined how worried global policy makers were, without offering any clear signals on what the response will be to the debt crisis," said a CNBC article.
There was talk of a shock and awe trillion dollar upgrade to the European Financial Stability Fund or EFSF but little consensus about implementation of such a plan. Markets have been reacting negatively to all the confusion.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Support is holding for now
World markets are selling off once again today but strong support at 1120 is holding on the S&P 500.
As you can see from this chart, the 112 level has been support for the last two months on SPY which is the ETF that represents the S&P 500. Every time prices hit this level, buyers have come in and sent us back higher. That is why it is called support. I'm of the opinion that that we are finally going to break through 112 and head lower. Generally when we break through support, more people start selling and we head dramatically lower. If we can hold support here, we will probably head higher back to 1200. We are in a trading range market for now as long as support holds. If we break support, look out below!
Market Recap
The big story today was gold which fell 100 dollars! Gold has formed a double top formation and there could be more downside on the way.
As you can see from this chart, the 112 level has been support for the last two months on SPY which is the ETF that represents the S&P 500. Every time prices hit this level, buyers have come in and sent us back higher. That is why it is called support. I'm of the opinion that that we are finally going to break through 112 and head lower. Generally when we break through support, more people start selling and we head dramatically lower. If we can hold support here, we will probably head higher back to 1200. We are in a trading range market for now as long as support holds. If we break support, look out below!
Market Recap
The big story today was gold which fell 100 dollars! Gold has formed a double top formation and there could be more downside on the way.
The reasons for gold's selloff is that hedge funds are selling their winners to raise cash. Also, with the dollar strengthening gold's appeal as a currency hedge is lessened.
There will probably be a buying opportunity coming up however so I am going to keep my eye on gold. The Chartographer has a great post on gold here and basically called the top in gold. I am real glad I sold my gold yesterday, I would not want to ride out this kind of move.
Stocks finished today in the green with technology stocks showing strength. The Dow was up 38 pts but the S&P 500 was up 7 and the NASDAQ was up 28. Support at 1120 has held for now. Overnight, SPY hit a low 110.85 but we bounced back smartly from there. We could be heading back up the range, however, I don't know if there is strength enough for us to power to 1200 again. But we could have a little rally from here to 1160-1170.
Foreign stocks did good today with European and Emergent Markets stocks doing well after getting obliterated yesterday. I thought the selloff was way overdone on foreign stocks and so dipped my toe in yesterday and bought some EM's for my long term portfolio. That is working out well so far as EM's are up about 2.5% today. You can track Emergent Market's stocks with EEM. My friend the Hasidic Plumber likes to track the Brazilian Bovespa and the Argentina Merval and you can track those with EWZ and ARGT or the Argentine Merval index if you like.
I was away from the computer all morning so wasn't able to track the stock market and did not do anything with my portfolio. I am definitely looking to get back into AAPL and start a position in MCD at this time. I like stocks that have shown strength and AAPL and MCD are two of the strongest stocks in the market right now. Cyclical stocks like CAT and energy stocks like XLE have really gotten bombed recently. XLE is an energy index and CAT or Caterpillar is a good proxy for global growth. These sectors are so weak it's best to stay away from them right now and stick with tech and consumer staples. Utility stocks are also strong right now.
Being at the bottom of the range, it would seem like a good time to get back in and set a stop at the recent lows. I will probably do that on Monday, although I will be away from the computer that day as well.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Stocks plunge worldwide
A dour outlook from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and slowing growth in China are contributing to a worldwide market selloff this morning. US stocks are down 300 pts at the open.
Yesterday's Fed statement offered a bleak assessment of the prospects of future economic growth in the US and said there are "significant downside risks to the economic outlook." Markets sold off 284 pts after yesterdays Fed statement.
Also, Chinese Flash PMI which is the purchasing manager's index, a measure or manufacturing output, declined to 49.4, the lowest in two months. This is adding to fears that global economic growth is cooling.
US Markets opened 300 pts lower with the SNP down 31 to 1135 and the NASDAQ off 66. Oil cratered tumbling over 6% to 81 and change. Gold fell sharply off almost 4% or 70 dollars down to 1737.70. Meanwhile US 10 year yields hit a new 60 year low at 1.77%
Foreign markets were down with the Hang Seng Index trading down 900 points or 5% and the Nikkei down 180. European stocks as you can imagine are tanking as well with the French, German and British bourses all down 4% or more.
Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa is down 3.5% and the Argentina Merval is down 4.3%.
It looks like we could be starting the next leg down in the selloff. We still haven't broken down through support so I won't add any shorts until we do. The bulls need to make a stand soon if they want to hold this bottom. Interestingly enough, small cap stocks are outperforming today in a horrible tape which could mean we get a bounce from the lows.
AAPL- Apple is also performing well today in a bad tape. It seems to be a safe haven in this market environment. AAPL is down only half as much as the DOW. I will probably buy my AAPL back today.
MCD- McDonalds is also performing well today down about half as much as the DOW. MCD is a great place to hide out in this market.
CAT- Caterpillar has been performing horribly lately. It has completely broken down from support around 80 dollars. This is a bad sign for global growth. CAT is down over 10% in the last 2 days!
NFLX- NFLX is up today! This is mildly surprising to me as today is a risk off day and NFLX short is a risk on trade. NFLX is up 1%.
FCX- Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold has been getting absolutely obliterated lately on slowing global growth. The breakdown in this name is a strong signal about slowing global growth. It is down 9% today and 15% in two days.
With that being said, I am now 100% cash in my trading account. It looks like the market wants to break down from here. EM's have already started the second leg down, it's just a matter of time for the US markets I believe. Call me crazy but on day's like this I like to buy for my long term portfolio so I picked up a small amount of emerging markets stock today. It's probably a mistake trying to bottom feed here but I don't see the justification for the kind of move we had today so I'll pick up some on the cheap.
Yesterday's Fed statement offered a bleak assessment of the prospects of future economic growth in the US and said there are "significant downside risks to the economic outlook." Markets sold off 284 pts after yesterdays Fed statement.
Also, Chinese Flash PMI which is the purchasing manager's index, a measure or manufacturing output, declined to 49.4, the lowest in two months. This is adding to fears that global economic growth is cooling.
US Markets opened 300 pts lower with the SNP down 31 to 1135 and the NASDAQ off 66. Oil cratered tumbling over 6% to 81 and change. Gold fell sharply off almost 4% or 70 dollars down to 1737.70. Meanwhile US 10 year yields hit a new 60 year low at 1.77%
Foreign markets were down with the Hang Seng Index trading down 900 points or 5% and the Nikkei down 180. European stocks as you can imagine are tanking as well with the French, German and British bourses all down 4% or more.
Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa is down 3.5% and the Argentina Merval is down 4.3%.
It looks like we could be starting the next leg down in the selloff. We still haven't broken down through support so I won't add any shorts until we do. The bulls need to make a stand soon if they want to hold this bottom. Interestingly enough, small cap stocks are outperforming today in a horrible tape which could mean we get a bounce from the lows.
Stocks I'm Watching
IWM- The Russell 2000 small cap index is outperforming today in a brutal tape. It is down 1% less than the Dow. I watch the small caps for signs or risk taking and risk aversion. Usually on a bad tape, the small caps underperform. I'm taking this as a signal that we could bounce back from here and am adding a long.AAPL- Apple is also performing well today in a bad tape. It seems to be a safe haven in this market environment. AAPL is down only half as much as the DOW. I will probably buy my AAPL back today.
MCD- McDonalds is also performing well today down about half as much as the DOW. MCD is a great place to hide out in this market.
CAT- Caterpillar has been performing horribly lately. It has completely broken down from support around 80 dollars. This is a bad sign for global growth. CAT is down over 10% in the last 2 days!
NFLX- NFLX is up today! This is mildly surprising to me as today is a risk off day and NFLX short is a risk on trade. NFLX is up 1%.
FCX- Freeport McMoran Copper and Gold has been getting absolutely obliterated lately on slowing global growth. The breakdown in this name is a strong signal about slowing global growth. It is down 9% today and 15% in two days.
Market Recap
Well it was a pretty bad day for my trading account. I sold my gold long for a 6 percent loss and I tried to trade AAPL today unsucessfully. I bought AAPL in the early going and got stopped out when it dropped past 400 later in the day losing about 2 pct. Today's action was brutal. I don't understand this market right now. I don't see how we can be down 500 pts on basically no news and when Greece was going to hell last week we were rallying! Emergent Markets were down 6-9% today! FCX was down 12%! What the hell! There was no news to justify that kind of action. I know global growth was slowing but so did everybody else I thought. China's PMI wasn't that bad last night! You would have thought Greece went belly up today based on the price action. With that being said, I am now 100% cash in my trading account. It looks like the market wants to break down from here. EM's have already started the second leg down, it's just a matter of time for the US markets I believe. Call me crazy but on day's like this I like to buy for my long term portfolio so I picked up a small amount of emerging markets stock today. It's probably a mistake trying to bottom feed here but I don't see the justification for the kind of move we had today so I'll pick up some on the cheap.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Italy downgraded!
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Yesterday, after the markets closed S&P downgraded Italian debt from Triple A to A+ rating citing a heavy debt load and weak growth and a dysfunctional political environment. Hmm, sounds familiar? Amazing they didn't cut it before. S&P are real idiots and probably should be arrested for causing so much havoc in the financial markets. How can you cut the US debt before you cut Italian debt, it makes no sense unless you have an agenda! Not saying that the US debt deserves a triple A rating but the bond market sure thinks so with 10 years below 2 percent!! Italian debt is junk and it's a travesty that S& P is only now getting around to downgrading Italy! Put them out of business, they are worthless! Now there is word that the SEC is investigating insider trading by hedge funds ahead of the US debt downgrade. S&P are crooks, lock them up and throw away the key!
The Italian debt downgrade seems to have had a limited impact on the markets so far as futures dropped about 80 pts on the news but have since recovered and moved into positive territory. Markets opened with a 40 pt gain but quickly sold off into negative territory before recovering. Gold and oil are both up even with a stronger dollar and the euro is down.
European stocks are solidly in the green at 7:18 AM PST with the FTSE up 1% and the DAX up 1.5%. The Hang Seng index finished up 100 pts while the Japanese Nikkei played catchup from yesterday and fell 140 pts.
The markets seem to be trading fairly well ahead of the 2 day FOMC meeting where it is widely expected the Fed will do another bond buying operation called Operation Twist. This is where they will try to extend the duration of their portfolio of bonds by selling shorter duration bonds and buying longer duration bonds. The size of their balance sheet will remain the same but their mix of bonds will change. I don't see how this is going to help things because the 30 yr is already around 3.2%. How low do they want it to go?
Stocks I'm watching
AAPL- Apple is making another new all time high in early going as the breakout continues. Fast Money traders speculated that AAPL is becoming a safe haven and I had been saying that for awhile now. AAPL has hit an all time high of 419.87 just below the magical level of 420. OK AAPL has just hit 420 for a new all time high, so to speak.
MCD- McDonalds is trading very well again today up about 1% outperforming the overall market.
IAU- Gold is bouncing back nicely after yesterday's selloff as the chop continues. IAU is up 1.3 pct in the early going.
NFLX- Netflix is down another 8% today as investors are piling out of the stock after yesterdays perplexing move by CEO Reed Hastings to split the company in two. Netflix is the cool name, nobody gives a hoot about Qwikster!
EEM- Emerging markets have been underperforming US markets pretty significantly recently. I'm not sure what's causing this. It could be the stronger US dollar and lower commodity prices or perhaps investors fear a slowdown in the global economy. Whatever the reasons, it is definitely worth monitoring.
Final recap
Markets sold off in the final hour of trading today. This was not a good finish for the bulls. We are near the top of the range and had a big intraday reversal going from up 150 to up 10 at the bell. I suppose it is a small victory that we did not go negative. I got caught up in the selloff as I got stopped out of my AAPL today for about 413.63. I had been raising my stop as I went along and AAPL got hit hard in the late day selloff and my stop was triggered. It was still a very nice trade as I made 5% in about 5 days. AAPL looks like it has topped for now but I will be looking to get back into AAPL at some point.The Dow finished up 10 pts and the SNP 500 was down by about 2 pts but the NASDAQ was down almost 1%. NASDAQ had been outperforming recently but got hit hard in the late day selloff. Gold was up 30 bucks and oil was up a buck to 86 and change.
This could be the top of this recent rally and we might start heading back down again. Small caps performed very poorly today as well. The wild card is the FOMC meeting going on. Whatever the Fed says in the next few days will move the markets.
PS Hey everybody, if you are interested in trading, I want you to check out a friend's blog. It's called the Chartographer's Map Room. This guy really knows his stuff and he's definitely a better trader than me! So check it out if you are interested, especially if you are starting out looking to get into it, he has a lot of good advice.
http://swingtrading101.blogspot.com
Monday, September 19, 2011
Apple Breakout City!
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
I was just checking out the futures before bed and I noticed they were down about 1.5%. Apparently, the Greeks are having some problems with their budget...AGAIN! They are having problems meeting their budget cutting targets to get the next tranche of bailout money from the rest of the EU. The Greek economy is in major contraction and trying to get more money out of the greek people is like squeezing blood from a turnip! This has renewed the fears of traders who have pushed down stock futures. US Dow futures are down 141 pts and the London FTSE is down 1%. The German Dax is down 2% and the Hang Seng is down 450 pts as of 12:25 AM PST. It looks like it could be another interesting day tomorrow! I was hoping for a continuation of the rally but it looks like we are going to head back down in the trading range we've been in for a month now.
The IMF told Greece that it needs to make more cuts in government spending to receive a new 8 billion bailout payment.
"Additional savings measures were needed to cut the public deficit to a sustainable level and reduce the public sector's claim on resources—code for axing jobs and cutting pay and pensions—while improving tax collection rather than adding further taxes," said a CNBC article.
The Euro was down by 1.5% and European stocks were down 2.5% or more. Oil was down over 2% and even gold was down about 1% as the dollar strengthened. The 10 year US treasury bond yield cratered to 1.96% as traders sought the safety of US Government debt. The DJIA was down 200 pts in early going and the dollar was up against a basket of currencies by about 1%.
"Greece is near an agreement with its international lenders to continue receiving bailout funds, a Greek finance ministry official said on Monday after a conference call between Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and inspectors from the EU, IMF and ECB, known as the 'troika',"said CNBC.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average after being down 250 pts in the early going finished down 109 pts after the last hour surge. The SNP 500 was down 1% and the tech heavy NASDAQ was outperforming down .36%. The NASDAQ was green at one point during the day as AAPL hit an all time record high.
Break out city!
NFLX- Netflix after earlier being up 3% finished down 7%. They are splitting their DVD and streaming services into separate businesses.
We realized that streaming and DVD by mail are becoming two quite different businesses, with very different cost structures, different benefits that need to be marketed differently, and we need to let each grow and operate independently. It’s hard for me to write this after over 10 years of mailing DVDs with pride, but we think it is necessary and best: In a few weeks, we will rename our DVD by mail service to “Qwikster”. We chose the name Qwikster because it refers to quick delivery. We will keep the name “Netflix” for streaming.
-- Reed Hastings, Co-Founder and CEO, Netflix
If I had some nads I'd short the shit out of NFLX right now. NFLX is a broken high growth stock and I think there is much more downside to go.
U-G-L-Y you ain't got no alibi, charts ugly!
IAU- Gold tanked today after the dollar rose against a basket of currencies. Gold is trading the opposite of the dollar recently. When the dollar goes up, gold goes down. Gold looks like it is going to chop around for awhile as it consolidates it's huge gains from the past few months. My gold trade isn't working too well for me right now. I won't be adding to it unless it goes past my original buy price. I won't be selling it either.
MCD- McDonalds is performing real well in a bad tape up .59% at the close. MCD is a classic defensive play in this environment and I am looking to add it to my portfolio. It has a nice 2.8% dividend yield as well. Problems include exposure to Europe, but they have nice growth in Asia and people like their cheap eats in this economic environment. Their chart looks pretty as well.
Its always a good thing when the price goes from the lower left to the upper right.
DBC- Commodities across the board got smoked today on dollar strength. Copper fell 4%, oil fell 2.5% and gold of course fell 2%. If copper drops because of dollar strength that is okay but if its down because of economic weakness, it's bad.
Today's action at the end of the day makes me constructive on tomorrow. If Greece get's their money it should be all systems go. Tomorrow, the FOMC starts their two days of meetings to discuss monetary policy. The market is expecting something called Operation Twist to come out of these meetings as the Fed looks to stimulate the economy. Let's see what happens.
PS Hey everybody, if you are interested in trading, I want you to check out a friend's blog. It's called the Chartographer's Map Room. This guy really knows his stuff and he's definitely a better trader than me! So check it out if you are interested, especially if you are starting out looking to get into it, he has a lot of good advice.
http://swingtrading101.blogspot.com
I was just checking out the futures before bed and I noticed they were down about 1.5%. Apparently, the Greeks are having some problems with their budget...AGAIN! They are having problems meeting their budget cutting targets to get the next tranche of bailout money from the rest of the EU. The Greek economy is in major contraction and trying to get more money out of the greek people is like squeezing blood from a turnip! This has renewed the fears of traders who have pushed down stock futures. US Dow futures are down 141 pts and the London FTSE is down 1%. The German Dax is down 2% and the Hang Seng is down 450 pts as of 12:25 AM PST. It looks like it could be another interesting day tomorrow! I was hoping for a continuation of the rally but it looks like we are going to head back down in the trading range we've been in for a month now.
6:36 AM PST Update
Stocks open lower investors fret over Greek default scenario. Investors are dumping Euro's and European stocks today as fears of a Greek default grow. Over the weekend, EU finance ministers met to discuss the situation but failed to come up with any new resolutions and German chancellor Angela Merkel lost another regional election putting more doubt into Germany's participation in the bailout.The IMF told Greece that it needs to make more cuts in government spending to receive a new 8 billion bailout payment.
"Additional savings measures were needed to cut the public deficit to a sustainable level and reduce the public sector's claim on resources—code for axing jobs and cutting pay and pensions—while improving tax collection rather than adding further taxes," said a CNBC article.
The Euro was down by 1.5% and European stocks were down 2.5% or more. Oil was down over 2% and even gold was down about 1% as the dollar strengthened. The 10 year US treasury bond yield cratered to 1.96% as traders sought the safety of US Government debt. The DJIA was down 200 pts in early going and the dollar was up against a basket of currencies by about 1%.
1:14 PM PST Update
Markets surged in the last hour trading after news broke that Greece was near an agreement with its lenders."Greece is near an agreement with its international lenders to continue receiving bailout funds, a Greek finance ministry official said on Monday after a conference call between Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos and inspectors from the EU, IMF and ECB, known as the 'troika',"said CNBC.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average after being down 250 pts in the early going finished down 109 pts after the last hour surge. The SNP 500 was down 1% and the tech heavy NASDAQ was outperforming down .36%. The NASDAQ was green at one point during the day as AAPL hit an all time record high.
Stocks I'm watching
AAPL- Apple was up 11 bucks and hit an all time high at 413.23 earlier today. This is trade is working out very well for me so far and if I had any more money I would be adding to this trade right here. There could be another 10-40 dollars of upside right here. 
NFLX- Netflix after earlier being up 3% finished down 7%. They are splitting their DVD and streaming services into separate businesses.
We realized that streaming and DVD by mail are becoming two quite different businesses, with very different cost structures, different benefits that need to be marketed differently, and we need to let each grow and operate independently. It’s hard for me to write this after over 10 years of mailing DVDs with pride, but we think it is necessary and best: In a few weeks, we will rename our DVD by mail service to “Qwikster”. We chose the name Qwikster because it refers to quick delivery. We will keep the name “Netflix” for streaming.
-- Reed Hastings, Co-Founder and CEO, Netflix
If I had some nads I'd short the shit out of NFLX right now. NFLX is a broken high growth stock and I think there is much more downside to go.
IAU- Gold tanked today after the dollar rose against a basket of currencies. Gold is trading the opposite of the dollar recently. When the dollar goes up, gold goes down. Gold looks like it is going to chop around for awhile as it consolidates it's huge gains from the past few months. My gold trade isn't working too well for me right now. I won't be adding to it unless it goes past my original buy price. I won't be selling it either.
MCD- McDonalds is performing real well in a bad tape up .59% at the close. MCD is a classic defensive play in this environment and I am looking to add it to my portfolio. It has a nice 2.8% dividend yield as well. Problems include exposure to Europe, but they have nice growth in Asia and people like their cheap eats in this economic environment. Their chart looks pretty as well.
DBC- Commodities across the board got smoked today on dollar strength. Copper fell 4%, oil fell 2.5% and gold of course fell 2%. If copper drops because of dollar strength that is okay but if its down because of economic weakness, it's bad.
Today's action at the end of the day makes me constructive on tomorrow. If Greece get's their money it should be all systems go. Tomorrow, the FOMC starts their two days of meetings to discuss monetary policy. The market is expecting something called Operation Twist to come out of these meetings as the Fed looks to stimulate the economy. Let's see what happens.
PS Hey everybody, if you are interested in trading, I want you to check out a friend's blog. It's called the Chartographer's Map Room. This guy really knows his stuff and he's definitely a better trader than me! So check it out if you are interested, especially if you are starting out looking to get into it, he has a lot of good advice.
http://swingtrading101.blogspot.com
Friday, September 16, 2011
Markets continue rally
Markets are in rally mode this morning on a continuation of positive momentum from the previous few days. There hasn't been any major news out today to move the markets although the University of Michigan Survey of consumer confidence did come in better than expected.
The DJIA is up 60 pts so far as of 7:26 AM PST after earlier being up as much as 90 pts. The SNP 500 is up 4 pts and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold rebounded after a recent selloff to 1795 and oil is down as well to 89.29 a barrel.
Foreign indexes were all up nicely last night with the Japanese Nikkei up 225 pts and the Hang Seng index up 273 pts. European stocks continued their nice run of late with the FTSE up 1% and the DAX up 2%. The Euro traded down a half a percent and the dollar was up.
NFLX- Netflix is down another 8.5% today after dropping 20% yesterday. This stock had been one of the best performing stock of the last 3 years. It was trading at 300 a couple months ago and is now down to 156.00. It is time to get out if you already haven't yet! Their business model is now in question and short sellers are pressing the gas on this one. There is more downside to come.
AAPL- Apple is really flirting with the 400 level today but hasn't kissed it yet. Apple is making a nice technical breakout past resistance at 393 and out of a triangle formation as well. Also, RIMMs bad news is Apple's good news.
IAU- Gold is bouncing back today after a vicious selloff yesterday. Bargain hunters are stepping in and shorts are covering before the weekend.
With oil dropping today and energy stocks lagging, I am looking for an energy play perhaps an oil service name like Transocean(RIG) or an E&P like Ultra Petroleum Corporation(UPL). I have traded XLE this year but am looking for more of a targeted play.
That is five up days in a row for the markets which we haven't seen since June! The SNP 500 was up 5.4% for the week. I like this market right here and would be adding to longs ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. It's been the best one week gain for stocks in over a year so let's see if we can continue the positive momentum for next week!
The DJIA is up 60 pts so far as of 7:26 AM PST after earlier being up as much as 90 pts. The SNP 500 is up 4 pts and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold rebounded after a recent selloff to 1795 and oil is down as well to 89.29 a barrel.
Foreign indexes were all up nicely last night with the Japanese Nikkei up 225 pts and the Hang Seng index up 273 pts. European stocks continued their nice run of late with the FTSE up 1% and the DAX up 2%. The Euro traded down a half a percent and the dollar was up.
Stocks I'm watching
RIMM- Research in Motion was down over 20% today after reporting bad earnings and poor guidance. Apple is cleaning their clocks. It could be a nice value play here as they have a ton of cash and some decent patents they could sell. Blackberry is still pretty popular but the problem is their playbook tablet which few people are buying.NFLX- Netflix is down another 8.5% today after dropping 20% yesterday. This stock had been one of the best performing stock of the last 3 years. It was trading at 300 a couple months ago and is now down to 156.00. It is time to get out if you already haven't yet! Their business model is now in question and short sellers are pressing the gas on this one. There is more downside to come.
AAPL- Apple is really flirting with the 400 level today but hasn't kissed it yet. Apple is making a nice technical breakout past resistance at 393 and out of a triangle formation as well. Also, RIMMs bad news is Apple's good news.
IAU- Gold is bouncing back today after a vicious selloff yesterday. Bargain hunters are stepping in and shorts are covering before the weekend.
5:00 PM PST update
Today, was kind of an interesting day as there was a "risk off" flavor to the markets. A lot of the stuff that had been rallying furiously the past 4 days took a back seat to the laggards. Example, recent traditional safety trades like bonds, gold, utilities stocks and consumer staple stocks rallied today while small caps and european stocks lagged. I don't know if the market is trying to tell us the rally may soon come to an end but it is worth monitoring for Monday. For now, I remain positive as we had another nice upday continuing the momentum of the previous four days. With oil dropping today and energy stocks lagging, I am looking for an energy play perhaps an oil service name like Transocean(RIG) or an E&P like Ultra Petroleum Corporation(UPL). I have traded XLE this year but am looking for more of a targeted play.
That is five up days in a row for the markets which we haven't seen since June! The SNP 500 was up 5.4% for the week. I like this market right here and would be adding to longs ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. It's been the best one week gain for stocks in over a year so let's see if we can continue the positive momentum for next week!
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