Markets are up in the early going after a better than expected jobs report eased fears of a recession in the US. The government non farms payroll report showed that 103.000 jobs were created in September, a number greater than economists had forecast. Economists were expecting 60.000 jobs created. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.1% as more people rejoined the workforce.
In some more good news, payroll data for July and August were revised upward by 99.000. Remember that horrible payroll number from August were we added a big fat 0 jobs? Well, it was wrong. Everybody panicked over that number but it turns out the US economy isn't as bad as the market thinks. The economic data we have been getting recently are consistent with an economy that is slowly growing and not an economy going into a recession.
Stocks have reacted well to the news with the DJIA up 75 points in the early going as of 7:47 AM PST. The other major averages are mixed. European bourses are all higher by more than 1% and the Asian indexes closed green as well with the Hang Seng up almost 10% in the past two days.
Showing posts with label XLE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label XLE. Show all posts
Friday, October 7, 2011
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Markets rally on German vote
Markets were rallying early Thursday morning as the German bundestag approved new powers for the European Financial Stability Fund.
From Reuters...
"The Bundestag (lower house) overwhelmingly approved new powers for the 440-billion-euro EFSF fund to make precautionary loans, help recapitalize banks and buy distressed countries' bonds in the secondary market."
The markets welcomed this news as a sign of greater European solidarity as fears of German non participation in the bailout receded. The Frankfurt DAX which had fallen almost 35% from the highs has been rallying strongly recently as German chancellor Angela Merkel has reiterated that the EU would not let Greece default and would keep the EU together.
Other good news in the markets today was US 2nd quarter GDP was revised upwards to 1.3% from a previous 1% print. This was on the back of better consumer spending and exports than previously thought.
Initial jobless claims also came in better than expected alleviating fears that the United States was sliding back into a recession. Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 391,000 which was much lower than the 420,000 that economists had forecast. Initial jobless claims measures the amount of new people filing for unemployment benefits in the past week.
Markets are strong across the board this morning with the Dow up 200 points as of 7:23 AM PST. The SNP 500 and NASDAQ are also solidly in the green up 1.4% and .67% respectively. European stocks are up as well with the German DAX and Paris CAC up over 1%. Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa was up 1.3% and the Mexican IPC Index was up over 2%.
Market Recap
Well, today had to be a frustrating day if you are a bull or a bear! Markets opened up strongly and then sold off all day going from 250 pts up to 50 pts down on the DJIA only to rally in the final half hour to end up 143 pts higher.
The interesting thing about today's market was the complete obliteration of some of the best performing momentum stocks today. AAPL, BIDU, GMCR, AMZN, FOSL, RL all were clobbered today. BIDU was down over 9% today on no news that I can see. AAPL was down 1.6%. All these had done well this year and with end of the quarter window dressing, I would have thought they would be going up on a good day like today. It seems fund managers may be dumping the stocks they have profits in and scooping up perceived bargains like bank stocks. Bank stocks were up across the board today with BAC and C up over 3% today.
I got stopped out of AAPL today with a 4% loss. It was a poor trade all around and I seem to have lost my mojo with AAPL for now and I will stay away from trading it for awhile. I have almost given up all the gains I had for the year with the last few poor trades. My XLE trade is working well for now (fingers crossed) although it did not look so good earlier in the day. Today's close was quite powerful and I look for a continuation of the strength into tomorrow. We should be able to get some follow through.
From Reuters...
"The Bundestag (lower house) overwhelmingly approved new powers for the 440-billion-euro EFSF fund to make precautionary loans, help recapitalize banks and buy distressed countries' bonds in the secondary market."
The markets welcomed this news as a sign of greater European solidarity as fears of German non participation in the bailout receded. The Frankfurt DAX which had fallen almost 35% from the highs has been rallying strongly recently as German chancellor Angela Merkel has reiterated that the EU would not let Greece default and would keep the EU together.
Other good news in the markets today was US 2nd quarter GDP was revised upwards to 1.3% from a previous 1% print. This was on the back of better consumer spending and exports than previously thought.
Initial jobless claims also came in better than expected alleviating fears that the United States was sliding back into a recession. Initial jobless claims came in at a seasonally adjusted 391,000 which was much lower than the 420,000 that economists had forecast. Initial jobless claims measures the amount of new people filing for unemployment benefits in the past week.
Markets are strong across the board this morning with the Dow up 200 points as of 7:23 AM PST. The SNP 500 and NASDAQ are also solidly in the green up 1.4% and .67% respectively. European stocks are up as well with the German DAX and Paris CAC up over 1%. Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa was up 1.3% and the Mexican IPC Index was up over 2%.
Market Recap
Well, today had to be a frustrating day if you are a bull or a bear! Markets opened up strongly and then sold off all day going from 250 pts up to 50 pts down on the DJIA only to rally in the final half hour to end up 143 pts higher.
The interesting thing about today's market was the complete obliteration of some of the best performing momentum stocks today. AAPL, BIDU, GMCR, AMZN, FOSL, RL all were clobbered today. BIDU was down over 9% today on no news that I can see. AAPL was down 1.6%. All these had done well this year and with end of the quarter window dressing, I would have thought they would be going up on a good day like today. It seems fund managers may be dumping the stocks they have profits in and scooping up perceived bargains like bank stocks. Bank stocks were up across the board today with BAC and C up over 3% today.
I got stopped out of AAPL today with a 4% loss. It was a poor trade all around and I seem to have lost my mojo with AAPL for now and I will stay away from trading it for awhile. I have almost given up all the gains I had for the year with the last few poor trades. My XLE trade is working well for now (fingers crossed) although it did not look so good earlier in the day. Today's close was quite powerful and I look for a continuation of the strength into tomorrow. We should be able to get some follow through.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Do we get some window dressing?
At the end of every quarter on wall street there exists a phenomenon called "window dressing". This is where portfolio managers and traders buy up stocks that have done well in the quarter and sell the ones that have done bad to make their portfolio's look better to their investors. Generally this is a time when stocks rise as money is put to work to make the quarter look better than it really was. If you look at the end of the last quarter in June, you can see a good example of it. Stocks really rose at the end of June.
We are coming to another end of quarter and after last weeks drubbing, markets are looking for any reason to rally. As such, stocks are once again up today nearly 100 points on the DJIA in the early going and the SNP and NASDAQ are up as well. We gave back 150 pts of gain on the DJIA yesterday and today we may get it all back! The headlines will say we are up on "European hopes" but we know better...it's because of window dressing!
After flying yesterday, European stocks have settled down a bit mostly in the red by modest amounts. London was down almost 1%, Frankfurt was up with a marginal gain and Paris was down by .4%. Gold remains near yesterday's closing price and seems to be stabilizing and silver is down a small amount. Oil is down almost 1%. The euro is rallying once again up a third of a percent.
Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa is up over 1% and the Argentina Merval is not open but was up 2% yesterday. Asian shares were mixed with Tokyo up and Hong Kong down.
We are coming to another end of quarter and after last weeks drubbing, markets are looking for any reason to rally. As such, stocks are once again up today nearly 100 points on the DJIA in the early going and the SNP and NASDAQ are up as well. We gave back 150 pts of gain on the DJIA yesterday and today we may get it all back! The headlines will say we are up on "European hopes" but we know better...it's because of window dressing!
After flying yesterday, European stocks have settled down a bit mostly in the red by modest amounts. London was down almost 1%, Frankfurt was up with a marginal gain and Paris was down by .4%. Gold remains near yesterday's closing price and seems to be stabilizing and silver is down a small amount. Oil is down almost 1%. The euro is rallying once again up a third of a percent.
Across South America, the Brazilian Bovespa is up over 1% and the Argentina Merval is not open but was up 2% yesterday. Asian shares were mixed with Tokyo up and Hong Kong down.
Sunday, September 25, 2011
Gold and silver in liquidation mode
Gold and silver were in total liquidation mode on Monday morning as European and Asian traders are looking to raise cash anywhere they can. Gold continued it's decline from the past 3 days as the dollar strengthened versus major currencies. Gold was down 3.5% while silver was down a whopping 12.4% to 26 and change after earlier dropping as much as 17%!
Yikes!
There is full blown panic in the commodities space as oil and copper were down big as well. Oil was down 2.50 to 77.50 and copper was down 5.5%.
Well it looks to be another roller coaster day on Wall Street after a weekend of talks between central bankers and policymakers from around the world failed to produce any agreement on how to deal with the European debt crisis.
"There was very little official detail on the talks however as speech after speech outlined how worried global policy makers were, without offering any clear signals on what the response will be to the debt crisis," said a CNBC article.
There was talk of a shock and awe trillion dollar upgrade to the European Financial Stability Fund or EFSF but little consensus about implementation of such a plan. Markets have been reacting negatively to all the confusion.
There is full blown panic in the commodities space as oil and copper were down big as well. Oil was down 2.50 to 77.50 and copper was down 5.5%.
Well it looks to be another roller coaster day on Wall Street after a weekend of talks between central bankers and policymakers from around the world failed to produce any agreement on how to deal with the European debt crisis.
"There was very little official detail on the talks however as speech after speech outlined how worried global policy makers were, without offering any clear signals on what the response will be to the debt crisis," said a CNBC article.
There was talk of a shock and awe trillion dollar upgrade to the European Financial Stability Fund or EFSF but little consensus about implementation of such a plan. Markets have been reacting negatively to all the confusion.
Friday, September 23, 2011
Support is holding for now
World markets are selling off once again today but strong support at 1120 is holding on the S&P 500.
As you can see from this chart, the 112 level has been support for the last two months on SPY which is the ETF that represents the S&P 500. Every time prices hit this level, buyers have come in and sent us back higher. That is why it is called support. I'm of the opinion that that we are finally going to break through 112 and head lower. Generally when we break through support, more people start selling and we head dramatically lower. If we can hold support here, we will probably head higher back to 1200. We are in a trading range market for now as long as support holds. If we break support, look out below!
Market Recap
The big story today was gold which fell 100 dollars! Gold has formed a double top formation and there could be more downside on the way.
As you can see from this chart, the 112 level has been support for the last two months on SPY which is the ETF that represents the S&P 500. Every time prices hit this level, buyers have come in and sent us back higher. That is why it is called support. I'm of the opinion that that we are finally going to break through 112 and head lower. Generally when we break through support, more people start selling and we head dramatically lower. If we can hold support here, we will probably head higher back to 1200. We are in a trading range market for now as long as support holds. If we break support, look out below!
Market Recap
The big story today was gold which fell 100 dollars! Gold has formed a double top formation and there could be more downside on the way.
The reasons for gold's selloff is that hedge funds are selling their winners to raise cash. Also, with the dollar strengthening gold's appeal as a currency hedge is lessened.
There will probably be a buying opportunity coming up however so I am going to keep my eye on gold. The Chartographer has a great post on gold here and basically called the top in gold. I am real glad I sold my gold yesterday, I would not want to ride out this kind of move.
Stocks finished today in the green with technology stocks showing strength. The Dow was up 38 pts but the S&P 500 was up 7 and the NASDAQ was up 28. Support at 1120 has held for now. Overnight, SPY hit a low 110.85 but we bounced back smartly from there. We could be heading back up the range, however, I don't know if there is strength enough for us to power to 1200 again. But we could have a little rally from here to 1160-1170.
Foreign stocks did good today with European and Emergent Markets stocks doing well after getting obliterated yesterday. I thought the selloff was way overdone on foreign stocks and so dipped my toe in yesterday and bought some EM's for my long term portfolio. That is working out well so far as EM's are up about 2.5% today. You can track Emergent Market's stocks with EEM. My friend the Hasidic Plumber likes to track the Brazilian Bovespa and the Argentina Merval and you can track those with EWZ and ARGT or the Argentine Merval index if you like.
I was away from the computer all morning so wasn't able to track the stock market and did not do anything with my portfolio. I am definitely looking to get back into AAPL and start a position in MCD at this time. I like stocks that have shown strength and AAPL and MCD are two of the strongest stocks in the market right now. Cyclical stocks like CAT and energy stocks like XLE have really gotten bombed recently. XLE is an energy index and CAT or Caterpillar is a good proxy for global growth. These sectors are so weak it's best to stay away from them right now and stick with tech and consumer staples. Utility stocks are also strong right now.
Being at the bottom of the range, it would seem like a good time to get back in and set a stop at the recent lows. I will probably do that on Monday, although I will be away from the computer that day as well.
Disclaimer: Nothing in this blog should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities! Please do your own due dilligence before buying any stocks or bonds!
Friday, September 16, 2011
Markets continue rally
Markets are in rally mode this morning on a continuation of positive momentum from the previous few days. There hasn't been any major news out today to move the markets although the University of Michigan Survey of consumer confidence did come in better than expected.
The DJIA is up 60 pts so far as of 7:26 AM PST after earlier being up as much as 90 pts. The SNP 500 is up 4 pts and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold rebounded after a recent selloff to 1795 and oil is down as well to 89.29 a barrel.
Foreign indexes were all up nicely last night with the Japanese Nikkei up 225 pts and the Hang Seng index up 273 pts. European stocks continued their nice run of late with the FTSE up 1% and the DAX up 2%. The Euro traded down a half a percent and the dollar was up.
NFLX- Netflix is down another 8.5% today after dropping 20% yesterday. This stock had been one of the best performing stock of the last 3 years. It was trading at 300 a couple months ago and is now down to 156.00. It is time to get out if you already haven't yet! Their business model is now in question and short sellers are pressing the gas on this one. There is more downside to come.
AAPL- Apple is really flirting with the 400 level today but hasn't kissed it yet. Apple is making a nice technical breakout past resistance at 393 and out of a triangle formation as well. Also, RIMMs bad news is Apple's good news.
IAU- Gold is bouncing back today after a vicious selloff yesterday. Bargain hunters are stepping in and shorts are covering before the weekend.
With oil dropping today and energy stocks lagging, I am looking for an energy play perhaps an oil service name like Transocean(RIG) or an E&P like Ultra Petroleum Corporation(UPL). I have traded XLE this year but am looking for more of a targeted play.
That is five up days in a row for the markets which we haven't seen since June! The SNP 500 was up 5.4% for the week. I like this market right here and would be adding to longs ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. It's been the best one week gain for stocks in over a year so let's see if we can continue the positive momentum for next week!
The DJIA is up 60 pts so far as of 7:26 AM PST after earlier being up as much as 90 pts. The SNP 500 is up 4 pts and the NASDAQ is up 10 points. Gold rebounded after a recent selloff to 1795 and oil is down as well to 89.29 a barrel.
Foreign indexes were all up nicely last night with the Japanese Nikkei up 225 pts and the Hang Seng index up 273 pts. European stocks continued their nice run of late with the FTSE up 1% and the DAX up 2%. The Euro traded down a half a percent and the dollar was up.
Stocks I'm watching
RIMM- Research in Motion was down over 20% today after reporting bad earnings and poor guidance. Apple is cleaning their clocks. It could be a nice value play here as they have a ton of cash and some decent patents they could sell. Blackberry is still pretty popular but the problem is their playbook tablet which few people are buying.NFLX- Netflix is down another 8.5% today after dropping 20% yesterday. This stock had been one of the best performing stock of the last 3 years. It was trading at 300 a couple months ago and is now down to 156.00. It is time to get out if you already haven't yet! Their business model is now in question and short sellers are pressing the gas on this one. There is more downside to come.
AAPL- Apple is really flirting with the 400 level today but hasn't kissed it yet. Apple is making a nice technical breakout past resistance at 393 and out of a triangle formation as well. Also, RIMMs bad news is Apple's good news.
IAU- Gold is bouncing back today after a vicious selloff yesterday. Bargain hunters are stepping in and shorts are covering before the weekend.
5:00 PM PST update
Today, was kind of an interesting day as there was a "risk off" flavor to the markets. A lot of the stuff that had been rallying furiously the past 4 days took a back seat to the laggards. Example, recent traditional safety trades like bonds, gold, utilities stocks and consumer staple stocks rallied today while small caps and european stocks lagged. I don't know if the market is trying to tell us the rally may soon come to an end but it is worth monitoring for Monday. For now, I remain positive as we had another nice upday continuing the momentum of the previous four days. With oil dropping today and energy stocks lagging, I am looking for an energy play perhaps an oil service name like Transocean(RIG) or an E&P like Ultra Petroleum Corporation(UPL). I have traded XLE this year but am looking for more of a targeted play.
That is five up days in a row for the markets which we haven't seen since June! The SNP 500 was up 5.4% for the week. I like this market right here and would be adding to longs ahead of the FOMC meeting next week. It's been the best one week gain for stocks in over a year so let's see if we can continue the positive momentum for next week!
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