Tuesday, August 9, 2011

Blast off

Markets were deeply oversold after 2 weeks of relentless selling so a reaction to the upside was to be expected.  This was the move that me and many others had been calling for for the past week or so.  Unfortunately, I had been too early in trying to pick the bottom but this definitely has signs that this might be THE bottom everyone had been waiting for.  Futures were down 300 Dow pts last night, and the SNP got to 1080!  We rallied into the open of the European markets and by the time US Markets opened we quickly rose 300 pts in anticipation of what Ben Bernanke had to say.  After the fed announced they were going to keep interest rates at its current low level until mid 2013, stocks fell to its lows of the day down some 200 pts.  Stocks quickly turned around however on no news that I was aware of and rallied furiously into the close rising some 650 pts in the last hour of trading, closing on the highs of the day up 430 pts.  
Unfortunately for me of course, I sold one of my mutual funds yesterday and so missed this furious rally.  While that fund made up less than 5 pct of my portfolio, I am still kicking myself today for selling into the panic.  While panic wasn't the sole reason why I sold the fund(the new transaction fees were) had I waited one day, I could have at least locked in a profit on the position instead of a loss. 
This was the type of powerful rally that usually has some follow through so I went ahead and added some to my long term mutual funds and initiated a position in AAPL today in my trading acount.  My plan for AAPL is to use a pyramid up strategy.  I bought one bucket today and if it goes up 5-7%, I will buy more.  I will not buy more if the price drops from here.  I will only buy if it goes up.  I set my stop loss just below today's low around 350.  I am looking for the SNP to rise to perhaps 1250-1270 based on today's huge reversal.  However, at that point there should be some more selling pressure at the 200 day moving average.  I anticipate we will be range bound for awhile until we can get some better economic data that does not confirm a recession. 

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