Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Damn the torpedos full speed ahead!

Pretty amazing a song thats 40 years old can so accurately describe my present state of mind.  Of course that song is paranoid by black sabbath.  Here are the lyrics.

Finished with my woman 'cause she couldn't help me with my mind
People think I'm insane because I am frowning all the time
All day long I think of things but nothing seems to satisfy
Think I'll lose my mind if I don't find something to pacify
Can you help me occupy my brain?
Oh yeah
I need someone to show me the things in life that I can't find
I can't see the things that make true happiness, I must be blind
Make a joke and I will sigh and you will laugh and I will cry
Happiness I cannot feel and love to me is so unreal
And so as you hear these words telling you now of my state
I tell you to enjoy life I wish I could but it's too late

fucking sick.

Anyways, crazy action in the markets today.  After 8 straight down days the DOW was down some 150 pts at one point in the session and then rallied nicely to finish the day up 30 or so pts.  S&P and NASDAQ looked even better.  Bulls may be bargain hunting here and we could get a few days bounce in my opinion.  I added a few longs today after taking some off a week back.  Not going crazy buying right here as the macroeconomic picture seems to be deteriorating rapidly.  I will be selling any bounce up to 1300 on the S&P.  As I write this, futures are up about 20 pts so hopefully we get some follow through for tomorrow.  I also bought back my NLY position after getting scared out of it during last weeks crazy action.  There was very strong positive price action in NLY for the past few days after last friday's flash crash.  I guess all the people who got stopped out are buying their positions back. These MREITS aren't supposed to have massive moves like they have been having recently.  The debt ceiling issue and potential credit downgrade of the US is probably taking its toll on investor psyche.  I decided to buy back because I believe that NLY's fundamentals are strong and CEO Farrell reiterated that a credit downgrade of the United States would not affect NLY all that much.  Low interest rates for an extended period, a weakening economy and an implicit government guaranteed portfolio of bonds all bode well for NLYs prospects for the next year or so, crazy flash crashes not withstanding.

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