Monday, August 8, 2011


There is total liquidation going on right now very similar to 2008.  People are selling everything to raise cash and I am finally joining in the party.  I liquidated one of my mutual funds today that I had planned to hold long term after I learned I was going to get hit with a 15 dollar transaction fee for any future fund purchase.   The fund was one of my riskiest as well Wasatch Emerging Market Small Cap.  The fund had actually been one of my better performers this year and has performed relatively well to its benchmark.  However, in this type of environment, it's quite possible that it may drop 50% or more in a short period of time.  I ended up with a small loss on the position started early this year.  I am now 100% cash in my trading account but still am 80% invested in my long term buy and hold portion of my portfolio with 20% cash. 
As for where the market goes from here?  I expect we head down to 1050 on the SNP which would give back all gains from the start of QE2.  There is such incredible downside momentum at this point that stepping in front of it would be suicide.  I don't anticipate any type of decent snapback rally as every 1-2% move up on the index gets smacked down real quick.  The only hope for the bulls is a slowing of downward pressure and stabilization and perhaps some sideways action.  I don't see any potential catalyst that could send the market into rally mode at this time.  I thought the ECB buying Spanish and Italian bonds could have been one but today's action threw that out the window.  Maybe Bernanke can say something tomorrow to reassure investors but whatever he says won't be enough for this market.  Only the fundamentals can save us now.  July jobs were better than expected.  If we can get more good data points like this over the next month or so, we should stabilize.  Lower oil prices should help out as well.   

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